2025 London T100 Pro Preview - Odds, Stats, and More

Updated August 5, 2025 02:22PM

On Saturday, Aug. 9, it’s “London Calling” for the next stop of the T100 Triathlon World Tour. After three races in Asia and North America, London will be the first of three European T100 events in August and September. Both pro races will be on the same day. The women start at noon local time and will have started their run when the men’s race goes off at 2:45 p.m. This should lead to an action-packed broadcast.

Watch the action live Saturday, Aug. 9, at 6:45 a.m. Eastern, 3:45 a.m. Pacific on OutsideTV for free. Outside+ members can watch the replay any time.

London is probably the T100 event with the longest history: It started as a short-course race in 1997 and was for some time the largest age-group triathlon event worldwide with 13,000 starters. The PTO took over the event and has been running it since last year, offering a T100 distance for age groupers in addition to Olympic distance, sprint, and super-sprint distances for individuals and relays. Six thousand age groupers will race on the weekend, but the T100 pro races are, of course, the highlight of two days of racing for spectators.

London T100 course

The course this year is very similar to last year’s course, eight bike laps, five run loops, and frequent timing mats will make it easy for on-course spectators and fans watching the broadcast to follow the race and keep track of the timing gaps, either through the T100 app or the live data page on the T100 website.

The race starts with two swim laps in the Royal Victoria Docks. Fun fact: Triathletes have special permission to swim in the race without a wetsuit – at all other times it’s mandatory for safety reasons. An Aussie exit after 1K will be the first chance to check how much of a gap the swim leaders can create.

After T1 inside the huge Excel Centre, it’s eight bike laps of 10K each, consisting of two mostly flat out-and-backs with a few turnarounds and twists but no major technical challenges.

Each 3.6K loop of the slightly improved run course passes through the Excel Centre and follows the Royal Victoria and Royal Albert Docks. The weather can be nice and warm but far from the heat and humidity of Singapore; however, English summer can also mean “liquid sunshine” (anything between a drizzle and a downpour) and chilly mornings and evenings.

Women’s contenders

London T100 will be an important indicator for how the T100 standings are going to develop before the fall races: The six topmost-ranked athletes are scheduled to race. After the first three races, Julie Derron (CHE) leads by 9 points. But for now, the difference to second-place Taylor Knibb (USA) is just one more race she has completed, and her 12th place from Singapore at the start of the season is likely to be eliminated before the final. Third-place Kate Waugh (GBR) is just three points behind Knibb, and all three winners from this season will battle for the win in London. They are also the pre-race favorites discussed in detail below.

Behind these “Big Three,” are Jessica Learmonth (GBR), Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR), and Ashleigh Gentle (AUS), who are all racing in London. Will one of them have a big result in London and close the gap to those in front of them? Georgia Taylor-Brown (GBR) is just one of the “T100 debutants” who could start with a big result; among the contracted athletes, Caroline Pohle (DEU) and Laura Madsen (DEN) are scheduled to start their 2025 T100 campaign in London.

Taylor Knibb

Knibb, the reigning T100 World Champion, was so dominant in her 2024 T100 starts that it was almost a surprise when she only built a lead of just over a minute into T2 at San Francisco T100, and Derron was able to run her down. Knibb did much better in Vancouver: Learmonth was first into T2, but together they built a lead of almost six minutes to Derron, allowing Knibb to take a comfortable win.

Vancouver T100 may have been Knibb’s first win of the season, but it probably won’t be her last. Can she continue with a win in London? Knibb is typically 30 to 45 seconds behind after the swim, but then quickly rides to the front of the race.

In London, she should be able to take the lead after two of eight laps, then her main task will be to build a lead. One of her few weaknesses is bike-handling skills – can she do better in the London roundabouts riding on what will feel like the wrong side of the road for her? Knibb isn’t a weak runner but she’s unlikely to match the run speed of Derron or Waugh – but how much of a lead will she need going into T2 to win? A rough estimate is two-and-a-half minutes; if it’s less she’s likely to get caught, anything more and she should come out on top. In addition, with five run loops in London, it shouldn’t be too difficult to extrapolate from the time difference in the first run lap. Are we going to see another Knibb domination, or will she have to fight all the way to the finish line?

Kate Waugh

When she started the first T100 this year in Singapore, Waugh was just another short-course athlete stepping up in distance. Four hours later, she had announced herself as a serious T100 contender, winning with the fastest run split and a new record for the biggest winning margin. She was also solid in San Francisco where she finished third but wasn’t quite able to match Knibb on the bike and Derron on the run. After those early-season races, she took some time for a training camp in Andorra, then finished sixth in the sprint race at WTCS in Hamburg. Will she have found the right combination between endurance and speed to play a major role in London?

Even in the stacked field at London T100, Waugh should be one of the fastest swimmers, maybe even leading into T1. How confident is Waugh going to be on the bike? Will she try to go with Knibb, who should start the bike 30 seconds behind her but will likely pass soon? Is there anyone from the lead swim group (maybe Learmonth) who might help her to limit the time she loses to Knibb while also staying ahead of Derron? Or will she have to ride on her own as in San Francisco where she lost contact with the lead group after the first 15K?

Waugh is a strong runner, but so far she has only raced two T100s, and it’s hard to predict how fast she can be in London. In San Francisco, she was 90 seconds quicker than Knibb but also 90 seconds slower than Derron. What time gaps are we going to have in T2, and how well is Waugh going to run? Can she put together three strong legs to take the podium or even the win in London?


Swim	★★★★★
Bike	★★★★★
Run	★★★
Overall	★★★★★
Winning odds	40% (3 to 2)


Swim	★★★★★
Bike	★★★★
Run	★★★★★
Overall	★★★★★
Winning odds	25% (3 to 1)

Julie Derron

Julie Derron leads the T100 standings with her win at San Francisco T100 as the highlight of the 2025 season so far. In Vancouver, she took her fourth second place at a T100 race – her fourth time behind Knibb. Her season started with a disappointing 12th place at Singapore T100, a result likely to be eclipsed by better results as the season progresses, as only the four best results will count before the Final in Qatar in December. That means that she’s ahead for now and might still be in the lead after London, but also that she needs more good results to hold on to that position.


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★
Run	★★★★★
Overall	★★★★
Winning odds	20% (4 to 1)

Derron’s most recent race was a win at Ironman Gasteiz only four weeks before London. That doesn’t have to be a bad sign; last year Sam Laidlow (FRA) also raced in Gasteiz before winning in London. But Derron will be under pressure from the gun: How much time will she lose in the swim to the leaders, but also to Knibb? Conditions in San Francisco helped her when it was one big lead group into T1. In Vancouver, she was two-and-a-half minutes behind swim leaders Maya Kingma (NLD), Learmonth, Charles-Barclay, and Knibb. Derron improved to sixth place into T2 and then to second place across the line, but she wasn’t able to threaten Knibb. Can Derron be back at 100% after her Ironman and swim better than in Vancouver? She won’t be much interested in adding another second place to her total – she’ll prefer to become the fifth athlete with multiple T100 wins. Can she limit the gap she’ll have in T2 and then run her way to another win?

Dark Horse #1: Jessica Learmonth

So far in the 2025 T100 season, the winning recipe was to bike with Learmonth – it worked for Waugh in Singapore, for Derron in San Francisco, and for Knibb in Vancouver. This is also an indication of how strong of a swim-biker Learmonth has been in this T100 season. Her final results reflect her progress on the run after an injury-riddled 2024 season: In Singapore, she was 13th (running a 1:37), then she improved to seventh in San Francisco (with a 1:16), then she was able to run 1:09 in Vancouver to finish third. Can she swim and bike as well in London and maybe even further improve her run in front of a home crowd?

Dark Horse #2: Ashleigh Gentle

Ashleigh Gentle was last year’s London T100 winner, and she is back to defend her title. She had a solid end to her 2024 season: At the T100 Final in Dubai, she raced hard and almost succeeded in catching Knibb on the run, then she took third in the 70.3 World Champs in Taupo. However, she won’t exactly be starting London as a favorite, as she hasn’t shown great form in her 2025 races so far. Her best result was a fifth place at Vancouver T100. Can she swim, bike, and run at a similar level to last year and be in the mix for London T100?

Dark Horse #3: Georgia Taylor-Brown

Georgia Taylor-Brown has a complete set of Olympic medals – gold and silver from Tokyo, and a bronze from the mixed relay in Paris. She has one result on the half-distance, a win at 70.3 Bahrain at the end of 2024. This will be her first T100 race – how will she perform in the deep London field? How much time is she going to lose in the swim? How comfortable will she be on her time-trial bike? And can she hold her own on the run against the more experienced T100 athletes? Many athletes have successfully stepped up from short-course racing – is Taylor-Brown going to be the next one?


Swim	★★★★★
Bike	★★★★
Run	★
Overall	★★


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★
Run	★★★★★
Overall	★★★


Swim	★★★
Bike	★★★
Run	★★★★
Overall	★★★

Men’s contenders

The men’s field also promises an exciting race – both for the win in London and important points in the overall series. Current leader Marten Van Riel (BEL) has decided to skip London, and the next three athletes are all tied nine points behind Van Riel. That means that we’ll likely have a new leader after London – whoever comes out on top between the race favorites Jelle Geens (BEL), Rico Bogen (DEU), and Mika Noodt (DEU). But you’ll also have to follow many more athletes who can make the race dynamics very interesting. We’ll highlight dark-horse contenders Kyle Smith (NZL), Hayden Wilde (NZL), and Jamie Riddle (ZAF) below.

With the tight London field, most of the men should exit the water within 45 seconds, creating a very crowded T1 and first bike lap. Who will take the initiative to ride off the front? The young Germans Bogen and Noodt are obvious candidates, but maybe there’s going to be a surprise similar to Laidlow’s performance last year? Geens might be the best runner in the field, but will others be able to gap him before T2? The race is probably going to be close until the very last run lap – who will come out on top in London?

Jelle Geens

Geens has found great success in the middle distance. When he switched distances after the Paris Olympics, he won Lake Las Vegas T100 and 70.3 worlds at the end of last season. After a heat-related DNF in Singapore at the start of this T100 season, he quickly bounced back and arrives in London with a second place in San Francisco and a win in Vancouver.

Even in the fast T100 fields, Geens’ strength is the run: In San Francisco, he had the fastest run split of the whole field, in Vancouver, he was also the best runner among the bike leaders. But his great run only matters if he can reach T2 not too far behind the lead. He often seems to be in trouble in the first half of the bike but then manages to work his way back in the second half of the ride. For example, in Vancouver, he was a minute behind the lead after 40K, then managed to claw back 28 seconds in the closing bike laps. You can look at this in two different ways: Either he was riding well toward the end, or he needed some help to push the pace (in Vancouver, Noodt worked with him after receiving a penalty). It’s probably a combination of both – and more than luck, as Geens has been consistently able to improve his position toward the end of the bike. Will other London athletes race strategically to isolate him on the bike, or can he once again reach T2 in a great position to take the win on the run?

Rico Bogen

In all his 2025 races, Bogen was the athlete who pushed the pace on the bike. In some races, he came up short on the run, finishing 10th in Singapore, seventh at 70.3 Jesolo, and sixth in Vancouver. But he was at his best at San Francisco T100, building a lead of more than two minutes into T2 and then also running faster than all his chasers except Geens, who was only able to reduce Bogen’s lead by a minute.

Bogen is a strong swimmer and will likely reach T1 at the front of the lead group. Everyone else will be watching him, waiting for when he’s going to launch an attack. Will he be able to ride away on the flat London course? It doesn’t look like a good course for bike attacks, but that’s exactly what happened last year when Laidlow rode away from the field, building an unassailable 90-second lead in the second half of the bike. Something similar could also be the plan for Bogen this year: Let everyone get a bit tired in the first half, then smash the second half of the bike. With the 20-meter draft rule in T100 races, it’ll be harder for the strong runners to save their legs by hiding in the bike group. Will Bogen be able to use the same plan as in San Francisco to take his second T100 win and climb to the top of the standings?

Mika Noodt

Even though Mika Noodt is one of the youngest pros in London, he already has three third places in T100 races. Two of them were in his most recent races at T100 in San Francisco and in Vancouver. In Vancouver, he received a drafting penalty and had to let the lead group ride away. Trying to work his way back, he probably helped Geens win the race, but Noodt also ran well and accelerated in the final lap to claim third place. Another third place would be a new record; currently, he’s tied with Charles-Barclay, who also has three third places from the PTO U.S. Open 2022, PTO European Open 2023, and Singapore T100 2025.

Getting hit by a car just a few days before Lake Las Vegas T100 last year put an early end to Noodt’s 2024 season. But he used the winter for a full recovery and has continued to improve. For London T100, Noodt will be looking for more than just another third place. To win, he could use a similar strategy to Bogen; maybe they could even team up to create a gap in the second half of the bike leg. If they start the run together, Noodt probably has the upper hand. What plan is he going to have for London, and will he be able to execute it? After switching to the middle distance in 2021, Noodt won one race each season. Is London going to be his first win of the 2025 season?

Dark Horse #1: Kyle Smith

Whenever Smith starts a race, he is one of the top contenders. Even in the deep fields in the last two years, his worst position was a fifth place – in Singapore 2024 (as a wildcard), and again just two months ago in Vancouver. Last year in London he was second, almost running down Laidlow but running out of gas in the final run lap. He’ll want to show that he’s a serious contender for the 2025 T100 World Championship Final and will race at least for a podium result. Can he leverage his strong bike for a head-to-head run duel for the win in London?

Dark Horse #2: Hayden Wilde


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★★
Run	★★★★★
Overall	★★★★★
Winning odds	33% (2 to 1)


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★★★
Run	★★
Overall	★★★★
Winning odds	15% (6 to 1)


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★★★
Run	★★★
Overall	★★★★
Winning odds	5% (20 to 1)


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★★★
Run	★★★★
Overall	★★★★


Swim	★★★★
Bike	★★★★★
Run	★★★★★
Overall	★★★★

Wilde started the 2025 season in great form, winning WTCS Abu Dhabi on the short course, then also Singapore T100 in April in dominating fashion. On May 3, he ran a new 10K personal best of 27:39. Just one day later, he was hit by a truck while riding his bike and suffered a punctured lung, broken ribs, and a shoulder injury. He was quickly flown to Belgium for a five-hour surgery. Just 14 weeks after that career-threatening accident and a lot of rehab work, he’s back on the start line for London T100. It’s unlikely that he’s already back to his winning form from earlier this season, but racing against the deep field will help him determine where he’s at and which areas – if any – will require more attention. Which role can he play in London?

Dark Horse #3: Jamie Riddle

Jamie Riddle completed a demanding race schedule for the first half of 2025: Qualifying for the Nice Ironman World Championship with a fifth place at his home Ironman in South Africa in March, then another fifth place at San Francisco T100 (racing with a wildcard) he was close to the front for most of the day, and even a penalty didn’t break his fighting spirit. Then he raced hard at Ironman Cairns in June: He went for the win but struggled in the last sections of the bike and run, still finishing in fourth place. Now he’s received another wildcard for London T100. Can he show another strong performance, once again racing for the win?

2025 London T100 Pro Preview - Odds, Stats, and More

London T100 Pro Preview

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