Kienle, Carfrae Comebacks Were Biggest In Kona History

Both Sebastian Kienle and Mirinda Carfrae overcame significant deficits to claim the Ironman World Championship titles.

Carfrae’s Comeback Off of the Bike

Recently crowned Ironman 70.3 world champion Daniela Ryf (SUI) made Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) question her ability to win another Ironman World Championship. The Kona rookie stomped the bike course and started the marathon 14:30 ahead of the defending champion. Even for the run course record holder, this seemed like an insurmountable deficit. As you already know, Carfrae caught and passed Ryf to earn her third Ironman world title with the fastest run in the race’s history (2:50:26). But just how improbable was Carfrae’s comeback? To answer that question, we compiled the biggest comebacks after the bike in the Ironman World Championship since 1986 when Dave Scott brought the race into the modern era by breaking 8:30. History shows that Carfrae’s charge to the front was as rare as it seemed.

Year		Eventual winner		Time Back
2014		Mirinda Carfrae		14:30
2013		Mirinda Carfrae		7:30
2012		Leanda Cave		4:30
2011		Chrissie Wellington		10:30
2010		Mirinda Carfrae		11:30
2009		Chrissie Wellington		LOB
2008		Chrissie Wellington		LOB
2007		Chrissie Wellington		LOB
2006		Michellie Jones		LOB
2005		Natascha Badmann		6:00
2004		Natascha Badmann		LOB
2003		Lori Bowden		7:00
2002		Natascha Badmann		LOB
2001		Natascha Badmann		LOB
2000		Natascha Badmann		LOB
1999		Lori Bowden		2:00
1998		Natascha Badmann		LOB
1997		Heather Fuhr		8:30
1996		Paula Newby-Fraser		3:00
1995		Karen Smyers		11:00
1994		Paula Newby-Fraser		LOB
1993		Paula Newby-Fraser		3:00
1992		Paula Newby-Fraser		LOB
1991		Paula Newby-Fraser		LOB
1990		Erin Baker		LOB
1989		Paula Newby-Fraser		LOB
1988		Paula Newby-Fraser		LOB
1987		Erin Baker		4:00
1986		Paula Newby-Fraser		5:30
LOB=Led off the bike
All times approximate

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Carfrae’s comeback was by far the biggest in the history of the race. The marathon course record holder closed on Ryf at an average of 40 seconds per mile until making the pass at mile 22. Prior to this year, Carfrae’s first Ironman world title in 2010 was the biggest post-bike deficit that had ever been overcome, regaining 11:30 on her close friend Julie Dibens. Watching Carfrae run into the lead was familiar, but the magnitude of her run dominance was greater this year than any other athlete in the modern history of the Ironman World Championships.

RELATED – Mirinda Carfrae: Something Told Me To Be Patient

Kienle’s Comeback After the Swim

Losing ground in the swim in the men’s race means so much more than the time difference at the start of the ride. Athletes who come out of the water behind the large front pack are forced to face the Queen K alone while a slew of other great athletes are able to benefit from riding (at a legal distance) in the front group. Winning Ironman Hawaii is difficult enough with an even playing field, and a poor swim makes the task that much more physically and mentally challenging. To win after a poor swim, that person needs to perform so dominantly on the bike and run that the rest of the planet’s top Ironman pros can’t overcome him even with a big advantage. Since 2004, every men’s champion made the front pack; this year Kienle won after surrendering 3:45 to the lead pack. This chart shows the deficits following the swim faced by the eventual champions.

Year		Eventual winner		Time Back
2014		Sebastian Kienle		3:45
2013		Frederik Van Lierde		LOS
2012		Pete Jacobs		LOS
2011		Craig Alexander		0:20
2010		Chris McCormack		0:20
2009		Craig Alexander		0:07
2008		Craig Alexander		LOS
2007		Chris McCormack		0:10
2006		Normann Stadler		0:17
2005		Faris Al Sultan		LOS
2004		Normann Stadler		3:45
2003		Peter Reid		LOS
2002		Tim DeBoom		LOS
2001		Tim DeBoom		LOS
2000		Peter Reid		1:15
1999		Luc Van Lierde		1:45
1998		Peter Reid		3:15
1997		Thomas Hellreigel		1:00
1996		Luc Van Lierde		0:15
1995		Mark Allen		LOS
1994		Greg Welch		LOS
1993		Mark Allen		1:50
1992		Mark Allen		3:10
1991		Mark Allen		2:10
1990		Mark Allen		LOS
1989		Mark Allen		3:00
1988		Scott Molina		0:10
1987		Dave Scott		LOS
1986		Dave Scott		LOS
LOS= Led out of the swim
All times approximate

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Less than four minutes might not seem like a make-or-break margin in an eight-hour race, but it is. No one has ever won the Ironman World Championship after losing more time in the swim than Kienle did this year. Normann Stadler equaled the feat in 2004 on a famously windy day that shattered many of the best runners in the field. To truly appreciate what he accomplished, consider that six of the other seven top finishers had the benefit of starting the ride in the lead pack. Like Carfrae’s run to the world title, Kienle’s victory was a historically great comeback.

RELATED – Sebastian Kienle: I’m Happy I Had Enough In The Tank

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